Britains Trade and Economic Structure: The Impact of the EU

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Similarly, while the Brexit scenario will certainly impact trade terms between the UK and the EU, highlighting the importance of a rules-based global trading system and the role of the WTO, global supply chains and commercial activity will adapt to the new realities. Policymakers must determine what levers they are prepared to pull to mitigate the effects of this historic vote, and to influence the nature of the post-Brexit trade flows. Have you read? The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro area and global perspective

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1 Introduction

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Search site. International students Continuing education Executive and professional education Courses in education. Research at Cambridge. Faculty of Economics. Brexit Project. Britain's popular referendum vote to exit from the European Union has created a great deal of uncertainty about the future of Britain's external trade relations with countries that belong to the European Union as well as with other major trading economies external to the EU, including the United States and China.

The economic consequences of leaving the EU

With the government preparing for exit negotiations, little is known about the future external trade policy the UK government intends to establish with regard to European Union states as well as with non-EU countries. Two major and interrelated sources of uncertainty are a the future value of the pound sterling relative to the currencies of Britain's trading partners and b the future trade policy on imports into the UK as well as the future trade policy Britain's exports will face in the EU. In this research project, we are conducting: 1. Co-investigator Professor Giancarlo Corsetti.

Their economies, particularly in rural areas, would suffer from the loss of agricultural subsidies and regional development funds, and the British government would have to make up at least some of the shortfall.

Britain's Trade and Economic Structure: The Impact of the European Union

Many fear that Central and East Europeans are damaging the employment prospects of low-skilled Britons and driving down wages. There is very little evidence that this is the case.

But academic research shows that the combined impact of high- and low-skilled immigrants on British wages is small, and so immigration from the EU does not constitute a major reason to stay or to leave. However, EU immigration is good for the public finances, as immigrants pay more in taxes than they receive in public spending. There are some costs that arise from higher demand for housing and public services. But current levels of immigration help Britain to deal with the costs of an ageing population, by replacing retiring workers, and by raising more taxes to pay for health and pension costs.

Since hostility to immigration is pushing Britain towards the exit door, it is likely that the UK would restrict immigration from the EU upon exit.

This would require Britain to increase taxes or cut spending. Moreover, British people can live freely elsewhere in the EU, and this is a major benefit for the 1. If their skills are in shorter supply in another member-state than they are in the UK, their income may be higher than if they stay put.

And the rest of the EU — particularly France and Spain — is a major destination for British retirees: over , are living in other EU member-states. In short, the high degree of economic integration between the UK and the EU will always require some system of shared governance. The EU will not allow the UK, upon leaving, to have the same level of access that it now has without paying a price.

Britain will not be able to leave the EU and remain in the single market, unless it is willing to sign up to EU rules that it did not help to write. Centre for European Reform. Search form Search. Hot topics Brexit. New EU leadership. Estimated cost of Brexit so far: 2.